The early wagering in the race for mayor

Feb. 18, 2007
Tom Ferrick Jr.
Inquirer columnist

Light the torches in the Great Hall of Deliberation. The Ferrick Commission is back for its first plenary session of the primary season.

First, we take note of our new surroundings in the Currents section. It's far more refined than our previous home, the raucous Metro front, where we had to share room with murderers, pols and other assorted lowlifes. To mark our new status, the chair has ordered gold-trimmed epaulettes to be worn on our black robes. It will add a little touch of class.

The location is new, but the motto of my panel of expert (and anonymous) political analysts remains the same: Errabundi Saepe, Semper Certi. Often Wrong, But Always Certain. We turn our attention today to the pentagonal puzzle that is the Democratic primary for mayor. We have five candidates running to succeed John Street, six if you count the entry of Milton Street, who told reporters Thursday that he's also in.

"It's my time now," Street said. Actually, Milton may soon be doing time. He is due to go on trial on May 14 for alleged misdeeds, including federal tax evasion. Milton said he is as qualified as "all the other earthlings running," a telling slip of the tongue. Could it be, as some have speculated, that Milton is not an earthling? That he is the brother from another planet? And here I thought he lived in Jersey.

But we digress. Please open your arithmetic books and turn to the section on long division. We hark back to the 1999 Democratic primary, the last time there was an open seat. There were about 290,000 votes cast for the six-candidate field in that race. The commission agrees that turnout this year should be roughly the same.

We have five substantive candidates (not including Milton and Queena Bass), so let's do the math: 300,000 votes ÷ 5 = 60,000 votes. Put another way, if all of the candidates are roughly equal in terms of support, it is possible for the candidate who gets, say, 61,000 votes to win this race. That ain't going to happen, but it does give you a sense of how small a pile of votes one might need to win: certainly 90,000 could do it.

And who among the field of candidates has 90,000 votes in his pocket? None of them. Not yet. The one who comes closest is Chaka Fattah, the congressman who represents Philadelphia's First District. He placed in the mid-20-percent range in the recent public polls. As one commissioner put it, "The race is Chaka's to lose," which the commission thinks he is perfectly capable of doing.

What gives the commission pause is the fact that, so far, Fattah's fund-raising effort has been anemic, which (some commissioners speculate) can mean (a) he isn't trying hard enough, or (b) the big money people aren't convinced he can win, or (c) some combination of both.

Ergo, the job of Fattah's two main African American rivals, former Councilman Michael Nutter and State Rep. Dwight Evans, is to stay close to the front-runner, so that if Fattah falters they will be seen as the most plausible alternative. Both have good bases of support. Evans is backed by many in the city's Northwest section, especially in the powerhouse 10th and 50th Wards.
Nutter will get the votes of residents of Center City, Mount Airy, Chestnut Hill, etc., most of whom are white and like his reformist image.

One commissioner's advice to both: Consider going up early with TV ads to make your numbers move up in the horse-race polls. Speaking of polls, the big surprise in the most recent one was the standing of businessman Tom Knox, who went from single digits to low 20s, due mostly to a $2 million flight of TV ads. Knox, a multimillionaire, has said he will spend what it takes to win the nomination. We take him at his word.

The ascendancy of Knox could prove fatal to the candidacy of U.S. Rep. (and Democratic party boss) Bob Brady. The Brady strategy was simple: The three black candidates divide the African American vote among themselves, while he emerges from the door marked "The Plausible White Guy" and wins. As of now, Knox is blocking that door. And showing no signs of moving.

But it's early in this game. As one commissioner analogized, this is like a game of Texas hold-'em. Each candidate begins with two cards face down (call it the base). The first of the three face-up cards has been dealt. Fattah got a jack, Knox a 10, Nutter and Evans eights, and Brady a five. The next card is about to be dealt. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.